Nearly $250 Billion Could Flow From a Federal Film Tax Credit, Study Finds

Hollywood is once again cashing in on the numbers game, this time to push a federal film and television tax credit through Congress. The Motion Picture Association (MPA) hired consulting firm Olsberg SPI to crunch the math, and the headline‑grabbing result is a staggering $250 billion in total economic value between 2027 and 2035.

What does that figure actually represent? It’s not just the money spent on set construction or special effects. The study bundles together direct production outlays, the ripple‑effect spending that supports everything from local hotels to food‑truck vendors, and the induced income that flows into workers’ paychecks.

On the direct side alone, the model predicts $125.3 billion in extra U.S.‑based production spend if a 20 percent tax credit on qualified labor costs is approved. In plain terms, that could translate into roughly 143,500 full‑time‑equivalent jobs every year and $133.1 billion in additional worker earnings.

Those calculations hinge on a few assumptions: the credit would apply only to productions that pour at least $1 million into U.S. expenses, and the base rate would be 20 percent with some higher‑rate uplifts for especially “U.S.‑centric” projects. It’s the same formula currently floating around on Capitol Hill.

Advocates aren’t shy about the political angle either. At a virtual press briefing, a cohort of industry champions — including Jon Voight, who bills himself as President Trump’s “special ambassador” to Hollywood — rolled out the findings as a bipartisan rallying cry. Representative Laura Friedman (D‑CA), who’s drafting legislation on the issue, warned that 65 countries already offer competitive incentives, while the United States “has been left out.” She argued that every production that ships overseas takes electricians, carpenters, drivers, and small‑business revenue with it.

The study also paints a stark contrast for the future of U.S. production without a federal incentive. Currently, the United States accounts for about 42 percent of global TV spend and 34 percent of film spend. With the credit, those shares could climb to roughly 65 percent for both mediums by the early 2030s. Without it, the numbers could tumble to the high‑20s for film and the low‑30s for television.

In dollar terms, the report estimates U.S. production expenditure could hit $38.7 billion in 2035 if the credit is enacted, versus a modest $16.6 billion if it isn’t. Those are big gaps, and they’re the kind of headline numbers that lobbyists love to repeat on the Hill.

Not everyone’s on board, however. A Wall Street Journal editorial recently slammed the idea as “handouts for Hollywood.” Still, the MPA’s chairman and CEO, Charlie Rivkin, pointed to the study as proof that the issue can bridge partisan divides — pulling together Republicans, Democrats, studios, unions, and guilds.

So the next few months will likely see a flurry of hearings, press releases, and perhaps a few more “special ambassadors” stepping forward. Whether the Senate and the House can turn those economic projections into actual policy remains to be seen, but the numbers are now on the table, and they’re hard to ignore.