MPA Says Federal Film Incentive Could Double U.S. Production and Add Over 140,000 Jobs

The Motion Picture Association (MPA) unveiled a fresh report Tuesday that sounds almost too good to be true: a 20% federal tax credit could double U.S. film and television production by 2032.

Prepared by consulting firm Olsberg SPI, the study estimates the incentive would generate about 143,500 production jobs annually, spanning everyone from set builders and construction crews to caterers and truck drivers.

“A federal incentive would be a game‑changer for our industry,” said Charles Rivkin, MPA’s CEO, in a statement. “It means more stories, more work, and more opportunities in every corner of the country.”

The numbers are striking. With the credit in place, total spending on film and TV could climb to $34.7 billion by 2032—almost double the $16.9 billion projected without it. Over the 2027‑2035 window, the report tallies an extra $125.3 billion in production activity and a cumulative economic impact of $249.1 billion.

Right now, the United States accounts for roughly 34% of global film production and 42% of TV production, according to data from ProdPro. The MPA’s model assumes those shares would tumble to 25% and 29% by 2035 if no federal incentive is adopted. Flip the script with a credit, and the U.S. could claim about 65% of global production spending.

The study leans on a 2015 FilmLA report that found 65% of a sample of 109 movies were shot in the U.S., using that as a baseline for the projected market‑share jump. It also examined 20 recent MPA‑member productions, concluding that a 20% credit would make 16 of them competitively viable domestically.

There’s political momentum, too. Former President Donald Trump voiced support for a federal incentive last month, and lawmakers say a bill could land on Capitol Hill before the month ends. The proposal will eventually be scored by the Joint Committee on Taxation, which will estimate the cost to taxpayers.

While the report doesn’t claim a precise return‑on‑investment figure—largely because the final shape of the credit remains undecided—it makes a compelling case that a federal incentive could revive a flagging domestic industry and keep more productions from heading overseas.