Monsoon's Grand Retreat: IMD Predicts September 15 Start from Rajasthan, Ushering in a New Season

As India collectively holds its breath, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has delivered its much-anticipated forecast: the crucial monsoon withdrawal is set to commence around September 15, with the desert state of Rajasthan as its initial point of departure. This prediction signals the graceful conclusion of a monsoon season that has largely brought cheer across many parts of the nation, boasting above-average rainfall and well-replenished reservoirs.

For a country where agriculture remains the backbone of the economy, the timing of the monsoon's arrival and its subsequent retreat is paramount.

This year's anticipated withdrawal date aligns remarkably close to the normal timeline for northwest India, which typically sees the monsoon depart by September 17. Last year, the withdrawal began later, on September 25, making this year's forecast a return to more conventional patterns.

The 2024 monsoon season has, for the most part, been a story of bountiful rains.

As of September 10, the all-India rainfall recorded a healthy 7% above the Long Period Average (LPA). Breaking it down, June saw a 9% surplus, July a robust 13% surplus, and while August experienced a 36% deficit, September has dramatically recovered, recording a 40% surplus so far. This uneven distribution highlights the dynamic nature of the monsoon, but the overall picture remains positive.

The implications of this forecast are far-reaching.

A timely withdrawal is often crucial for farmers, allowing for optimal conditions for the harvesting of Kharif crops and the preparation for the upcoming Rabi sowing season. Good rainfall and a predictable withdrawal cycle contribute significantly to agricultural productivity and, by extension, to food security and the rural economy.

Behind these atmospheric balletics are complex global climate phenomena.

Currently, the world is experiencing El Niño conditions, a warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that typically suppresses monsoon rainfall in India. However, the IMD anticipates a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions, followed by the development of La Niña – El Niño's cooler counterpart – which generally brings better rainfall to the Indian subcontinent.

Adding another layer of complexity, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) condition has also been at play, which often correlates with a good Indian monsoon.

As the monsoon prepares its exit from the parched landscapes of Rajasthan, heralding cooler, drier air, India looks forward to the post-monsoon period.

This forecast brings a sense of assurance, marking the end of a robust rainy season and setting the stage for the next agricultural cycle, all under the watchful eyes of climate scientists predicting an intriguing shift in global weather patterns.