Monsoon's Grand Finale: Retreat Begins in Northwest India After a Bountiful Season

India is on the cusp of a significant seasonal shift as the southwest monsoon, a lifeline for the nation's agriculture and economy, prepares to commence its withdrawal from the northwestern parts of the country by next week. This announcement from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) signals the gradual conclusion of a monsoon season that has, on the whole, delivered robust rainfall, with the country recording an impressive 8% surplus so far.

Typically, the monsoon's retreat officially begins around September 17 from west Rajasthan.

Current meteorological conditions, including a noticeable southward shift in the monsoon trough, are becoming increasingly favourable for this annual phenomenon to kick off. While the IMD had initially predicted a "normal" monsoon season, ranging between 94-106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm, the actual performance has exceeded expectations in many regions.

The distribution of this year's rainfall, however, tells a story of regional variation.

The South Peninsula has revelled in a significant 28% surplus, providing much-needed replenishment to its reservoirs and agricultural lands. Central India has also experienced a generous season, with a 12% surplus. In contrast, the East and Northeast regions have observed a marginal 1% deficit, while Northwest India, where the retreat is imminent, has seen a 5% deficit.

Despite these regional differences, the overall national surplus of 8% is a welcome figure, particularly for the agricultural sector which heavily relies on monsoon rains for irrigation.

The timely and sufficient rainfall helps ensure good crop yields, playing a pivotal role in India's food security and economic stability. As the monsoon prepares to bid adieu, particularly from the arid plains of Rajasthan, the focus will now shift to the lingering effects of the rainfall and the transition into the post-monsoon period.

The IMD will continue to monitor the conditions closely, providing updates on the further progression of the withdrawal.

This annual cycle of monsoon arrival and retreat is a critical event for India, dictating the rhythm of life and economy for millions. The upcoming withdrawal marks not just a meteorological event, but a significant milestone in the country's annual calendar, paving the way for cooler, drier conditions ahead.