Monsoon's Curtain Call: IMD Predicts Withdrawal from West Rajasthan by September 15

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has delivered a significant update for the nation's weather watchers: the Southwest Monsoon, a lifegiver for Indian agriculture and daily life, is officially set to begin its phased withdrawal from West Rajasthan around September 15. This announcement marks a pivotal moment, signaling the winding down of the intense rainy season for a substantial part of the country.

According to Mr.

Mritunjay Mohapatra, the Director General of the IMD, the conditions are aligning perfectly for this annual meteorological event. Three key factors govern the IMD's declaration of monsoon withdrawal: a sustained reduction in rainfall activity over the region for at least five consecutive days, the crucial formation of an anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower troposphere, and a notable decrease in the moisture content over the affected areas.

These indicators collectively point towards the monsoon's retreat from the arid landscapes of West Rajasthan.

Historically, West Rajasthan serves as the initial point of the monsoon's departure before it gradually recedes from other parts of the subcontinent. While the withdrawal begins here in mid-September, the eastern regions of the country might experience its farewell only by the first week of October.

This staggered process is characteristic of India's vast and diverse geography, with varying local weather patterns influencing the timeline.

Looking back at the season, India collectively received approximately 8% less rainfall than its long-period average, placing the 2024 monsoon squarely in the "below normal" category.

A significant contributor to this deficit was the prevailing El Niño phenomenon during August, which is typically associated with suppressed monsoon rainfall across the Indian subcontinent. This climatic factor played a crucial role in shaping the monsoon's performance this year.

However, as one chapter closes, another begins.

The IMD's outlook for September forecasts a dynamic picture. While Northwest and West Central India are expected to experience below-normal rainfall as the monsoon retreats, a contrasting scenario is anticipated for parts of South Peninsular India, East India, and Northeast India. These regions are projected to receive above-normal rainfall, potentially extending their wet spell beyond the typical timeline.

This potential for delayed withdrawal from the southern reaches of the country could lead to an extended rainy season for states like Kerala, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu, offering a late boost to their water reservoirs and agricultural activities.

As the monsoon prepares its grand exit from some parts, it promises a lingering presence in others, reminding us of the intricate and ever-changing dance of India's climate.