Lupin share price gains 92% in last one year to scale 52 week highs. Should you Buy, Sell or Hold the stock?

share price with gains of more than 1% in morning trades scaled 52 week highs on Thursday. The stock has gained more than 90% in the last year helped by improved earnings outlook being driven by new launches and a strong pipeline of products for the US markets. The US performance of Lupin has regularly seen an uptick led by lower competitive intensity being faced by its base business and strong performance by new launches.

Lupin during first half saw its revenue grow 25%. Nevertheless, net profits had grown multi folds to 942 Crore in H1FY24 from 40.7 Crore in H1FY23. The company’s US portfolio is driving growth led by respiratory products and analysts see more gains. Lupin has been focusing on complex products to beat competitive intensity and drive growth.

Its has also been growing its portfolio for developed markets through inorganic route too. Lupin had recently acquired brands like AARANE in Germany and NALCROM in Canada after having acquired respiratory assets as Xopenex and Brovana in the US market. Lupin’s existing respiratory portfolio is gaining traction, where Albuterol is gaining market share in the generics segment at 22.9% and Arfomoterol market share stands at 32.8% in the branded generics portfolio as per analysts at Sharekhan .

Lupin’s recent launches in the reparatory segment as generics of inhaler Spiriva in the US market, are also shaping well. The product does not face any significant competition. USFDA has not granted exclusivity approval, but we do not foresee competitors until FY2026, said analysts at Sharekhan With assumption that generic Spiriva will not face price erosion pressure until FY2026 they build in $95 million and $100 miliion sales from Spiriva in FY2025 and FY2026, respectively.

This will increase overall US sales to $835 mn and $1,000 mn sales, respectively said analysts at Sharekhan Lupin's strong presence in domestic markets where it is growing well also cushions its outlook. Overall good US sales traction, Livemint tops charts as the fastest growing news website in the world to know more.

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