India's Geopolitical Conundrum: Navigating the Armenia-Azerbaijan Accord and its Echoes on Connectivity

The South Caucasus region is once again at the heart of a geopolitical shift, as Western powers champion a new peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While a resolution to the long-standing conflict might seem like a positive step, for India, this developing scenario presents a complex web of strategic challenges and potential compromises to its long-term interests, particularly concerning crucial connectivity projects.

For decades, India has carefully cultivated its strategic relationships, notably with Armenia, a fellow democracy, while also engaging with Azerbaijan.

Its primary goal has been to ensure regional stability and facilitate vital trade routes that bypass traditional, often volatile, pathways. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), with Iran's Chabahar Port at its fulcrum, stands as a cornerstone of India's vision for seamless connectivity to Central Asia, Russia, and Europe.

This ambitious project aims to drastically reduce transit times and costs, offering a secure and reliable alternative to the Suez Canal.

However, the emerging peace deal, heavily influenced by the United States and the European Union, carries a significant wildcard: the proposed Zangezur Corridor.

This corridor, linking Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenia's Syunik province, is not just a territorial passage; it is a geopolitical artery. Its full operationalization, especially under the influence of Azerbaijan's staunch ally, Turkey, could fundamentally alter the regional connectivity landscape.

If the Zangezur Corridor becomes the dominant route, it risks sidelining Iran and, by extension, rendering India's substantial investments in the INSTC and Chabahar Port less significant. This would be a substantial blow to India's strategic foresight and economic aspirations in Eurasia.

The potential implications extend beyond mere trade routes.

A strengthened Turkey-Azerbaijan axis, further cementing Ankara's influence in the South Caucasus, has direct security ramifications for India. Turkey's increasing military and strategic collaboration with Pakistan, particularly in aerospace and defense, raises red flags for New Delhi. Any scenario that enhances this partnership's regional clout, especially in a strategically vital area, warrants close scrutiny from Indian policymakers.

Furthermore, the current geopolitical climate sees Russia's traditional dominance in the South Caucasus gradually receding, creating a vacuum that Western powers are keen to fill.

While the West's mediation for peace is laudable, its long-term objectives and the potential for new alliances to emerge need careful consideration by India. India's traditionally balanced approach to foreign policy, maintaining ties with various power blocs, now faces the challenge of adapting to rapidly evolving regional dynamics where its partners and rivals are realigning.

The Zangezur Corridor's development, if it proceeds as a Turkish-Azerbaijani-led project, bypassing existing regional agreements and effectively isolating Iran, could severely undermine the very essence of the INSTC.

India's vision relies on a multi-modal, inclusive network that benefits all regional stakeholders, not one that creates new exclusions. For India, the path forward requires deft diplomacy, advocating for solutions that integrate existing infrastructure like Chabahar and INSTC, rather than replacing them.

The challenge lies in ensuring that a peace deal designed to end one conflict does not inadvertently compromise India's hard-won strategic and economic interests in the heart of Eurasia.