Indian Shrimp Exports Face Steep Decline as US Tariffs Bite Hard

India's thriving shrimp export sector, a cornerstone of its marine trade, is facing a formidable headwind that threatens to significantly impact its performance. A sobering report from CRISIL projects a substantial 15-18% decline in export volumes for the current fiscal year (FY25). This anticipated downturn signals a challenging period ahead for Indian exporters, primarily driven by new trade barriers and shifting global market dynamics.

At the heart of this projected decline are the preliminary countervailing duties (CVDs) recently imposed by the U.S.

Department of Commerce. These duties, set at approximately 15% on Indian shrimp imports, directly increase the cost of Indian produce for American buyers, inevitably making it less competitive. Given that the United States is India's largest market, accounting for nearly 40% of its total shrimp exports, the ripple effects of such a tariff are profound and immediate.

Beyond the tariffs, the industry is grappling with a broader set of challenges.

Global shrimp markets are experiencing a significant oversupply, exacerbated by subdued demand, particularly in key consumption hubs like the US. This combination of increased supply and weakened appetite creates a 'perfect storm' for exporters, pushing prices downwards and squeezing profit margins across the board.

The once-robust demand that fueled India's export growth is now softening, forcing a re-evaluation of market strategies.

For Indian shrimp farmers and exporters, the implications are dire. Lower export volumes directly translate to reduced realisations and mounting pressure on profitability. Many businesses, having invested heavily in expanding capacity to meet previous demand, now face the unenviable task of navigating a market where their primary product is less desired and more expensive for buyers due to external factors.

This financial strain could lead to consolidation or even closures within the industry if conditions do not improve.

India has long cemented its position as a dominant player in the global shrimp trade, with exports reaching an impressive 7 lakh tonnes in FY23. However, the current scenario necessitates a strategic pivot.

While exporters might explore opportunities to diversify into alternative markets such as Europe and China, the sheer volume and premium prices offered by the US market are difficult to replicate. Europe, for instance, typically commands lower realisations, while the Chinese market, though large, can be volatile.

Adding to the competitive landscape, other major shrimp-producing nations like Ecuador and Vietnam are aggressively vying for market share.

These countries often benefit from different cost structures or trade agreements, posing a direct threat to India's position. CRISIL's analysis suggests that the combined effect of duties, oversupply, and intensified competition will likely keep farm-gate prices under significant pressure, impacting the livelihoods of countless farmers reliant on the shrimp industry.

In essence, the Indian shrimp industry stands at a critical juncture.

The convergence of protectionist trade policies from the US and a global market struggling with oversupply and demand slowdown presents a formidable obstacle. While the sector has demonstrated resilience in the past, the current challenges demand innovative strategies, market diversification, and potentially government support to navigate what promises to be a testing period for one of India's most significant marine export commodities.