India Still Holds the Spot as Russia’s Second‑Largest Oil Buyer, With May Imports Surging 21 %

When the numbers rolled in for May, the story was unmistakable: India bought more Russian oil than it had in any recent month, and the jump was big – a solid 21 % increase over April’s tally. That surge kept the sub‑continent firmly in the runner‑up slot behind China, a position it has held for several years now.

According to the latest data from India’s Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S), the country imported roughly 1.86 million metric tonnes of Russian crude in May. That translates to about 3.95 million barrels per day, a noticeable lift from the roughly 1.54 million tonnes (or about 3.28 million barrels per day) the previous month recorded.

Why the sudden spike? Analysts point to a mix of factors. First, the price of Russian Urals crude has remained relatively attractive compared with benchmark grades, especially after the rollout of new discount structures aimed at non‑Western buyers. Second, India’s own refining sector is in the middle of a capacity‑expansion phase, meaning refineries are hungry for feedstock to keep the lines humming.

There’s also a geopolitical twist. While Western sanctions have squeezed Russia’s access to traditional markets, Delhi has carefully steered a middle‑ground approach, maintaining strategic ties with Moscow without overtly flouting the broader sanctions regime. The result? A steady flow of oil that satisfies India’s growing energy appetite while keeping diplomatic channels open.

It’s worth noting that the jump isn’t just a statistical blip. Over the past year, Indian imports of Russian crude have risen by nearly 30 %, a trend that mirrors the country’s broader shift toward diversified energy sourcing. In 2023, the share of Russian oil in India’s total crude basket sat at around 9 %; by the end of May 2024, that figure nudged up to roughly 11 %.

Still, the relationship is not without its hiccups. Shipping constraints, especially the limited availability of vessels willing to navigate the Red Sea amid security concerns, have occasionally slowed deliveries. Moreover, price volatility remains a wildcard – any sudden spike in global oil markets could prompt Indian refiners to look elsewhere.

From a macro‑economic perspective, the uptick in Russian oil purchases helps to buffer India’s trade balance. Crude imports, while costly, are a prerequisite for the nation’s booming petrochemical and fuel sectors, which together generate significant export earnings. In other words, the oil that comes in now can translate into products that travel out later.

Looking ahead, the outlook is cautiously optimistic. If Russia continues to offer competitive pricing and if shipping routes remain relatively secure, India is likely to keep bolstering its purchases. At the same time, any escalation in geopolitical tensions or a sharp swing in global oil prices could prompt a re‑assessment.

In short, May’s 21 % jump in Russian oil imports underscores India’s pragmatic energy strategy: keep the tanks full, keep the refineries busy, and navigate the complex dance of geopolitics with a steady hand.