India’s Smartphone Market Braces for a Festive‑Season Slump

India’s much‑loved festival‑shopping window – stretching from September through December – is already looking a lot bleaker for smartphone lovers. After two quarters of softening demand, the market now faces a double‑whammy of price hikes and a noticeable drop in promotional discounts.

According to IDC data, which Moneycontrol has exclusive access to, shipments could tumble 25‑30% in the upcoming Q3 and slide another 20% in Q4. That would pull the full‑year total down to roughly 125‑128 million units, a sharp contrast to the 48 million phones that moved in the festive quarter last year.

“The festive season in India has always run on the promise of discounts,” says IDC analyst Upasna Joshi. “This year, with average selling prices climbing across the board, we don’t expect festive promotions to fully offset the underlying demand weakness.” Retail footfalls have already dipped, and without the usual price‑cut fireworks, many shoppers are simply holding onto their old handsets a little longer.

Counterpoint Research echoes the gloom, forecasting a double‑digit dip in volumes. Their director, Tarun Pathak, points to at least two more price hikes before the holiday rush, which will make even mid‑range phones feel pricier. In July, shipments were already down 14% YoY, and the last two weeks of that month saw a 27% fall in sales.

Manufacturers are feeling the pressure too. Samsung, Xiaomi, Vivo, OPPO, Nothing and OnePlus have all nudged prices up across various tiers. Samsung, for instance, rolled out its third price increase this month. Industry insiders expect the low‑ and mid‑range segments to see further hikes, while the premium bracket may stay relatively stable.

According to Kailash Lakhyani, founder of the All India Mobile Retailers Association (AIMRA), the cumulative price jumps across both old and fresh inventory have already hit an average of 60%, with some forecasts hinting at a possible 100% rise around the festive period. Main‑line retail sales slid 30‑40% in late August and have slumped another 40‑50% since September 1.

Adding to the squeeze is Apple’s upcoming iPhone launch. While Apple isn’t hiking prices on older models, the brand’s tradition of offering deep festive discounts is fading. “Consumers have grown used to waiting for steep iPhone discounts, but this year the phones are likely to sell at full MRP,” Joshi notes. The new iPhone rollout, expected around mid‑September, will draw retailer focus away from Android, further tightening visibility for competing devices.

Segment‑wise, IDC predicts the sub‑$100 bracket will shrink by more than 80% in 2026, while the $100‑200 slice could fall 9‑10% YoY. The $200‑400 range may see only a modest single‑digit dip, but the $400‑600 segment is projected to grow double‑digit, showing that higher‑priced phones are still resilient among buyers who can absorb cost increases.

All eyes will be on October and November – the heart of the Dussehra, Durga Puja and Diwali celebrations – to see whether any late‑blooming discounts can revive a market that’s currently on a steep downward curve.