Gift Nifty slips 36 points as oil prices surge and US‑Iran tensions loom

At 7:42 a.m. on Monday, the Gift Nifty was hovering around 23,974 – that’s 36 points, or about 0.15 per cent, lower than the previous close. A modest dip, perhaps, but enough to set a careful tone for the day ahead.

Market watchers say the mood is being shaped by two big factors: a firm‑up in crude oil prices and a fresh spike in geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent was trading just above $96 a barrel, while U.S. WTI hovered near $92, both edging higher after a near‑10 % weekly gain.

“Elevated oil costs are feeding into inflation worries and inflating India’s import bill,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money. “That backdrop makes investors a little more hesitant to chase equities, even if regional cues look supportive.”

Globally, the risk‑on vibe was mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped about 2 per cent and South Korea’s Kospi added roughly 3 per cent, while the broader MSCI Asia‑Pacific index (excluding Japan) climbed close to 1 per cent after a strong U.S. jobs report. Yet the upside was tempered by the lingering shadow of higher yields – the 10‑year U.S. Treasury was perched near 4.78 per cent, edging toward the psychologically significant 5 per cent mark.

Investors will also be keeping a close eye on U.S. inflation data later this week. The August CPI is expected to show a 0.2 per cent rise in core prices, but a 0.3 per cent surprise could nudge Treasury yields higher and fuel further market caution.

On the technical front, the Nifty still finds itself below its key moving averages, tracing a descending pattern. The 24,000–24,200 zone acts as the nearest resistance; a clean break above 24,200 could ease some of the bearish pressure. Conversely, 23,800 is the critical support level – slip below that and the index could drift toward the 23,600 area.

Yesterday’s session offered a brief breather: the Sensex climbed 363 points to finish at 76,515, snapping a four‑day losing streak, while the Nifty edged up 24 points to close at 23,898 after briefly touching 24,006.

In short, the market is walking a tightrope between supportive Asian equities and the twin headwinds of soaring oil and Middle‑East uncertainty. How the next few days play out will hinge on whether oil can be tamed and whether U.S. inflation stays in check.