From 9% to 27%: Prediction markets gatecrash the World Cup betting business

When the 2026 World Cup kicked off, nobody expected the fledgling prediction‑market scene to turn into a full‑blown contender for the sports‑betting crown. Yet, in a matter of weeks, platforms such as Kalshi have gone from a modest slice of the pie – roughly 9% of legal U.S. betting activity at the start of the year – to a staggering 27% of the total volume recorded during the tournament.

That leap isn’t just a number on a spreadsheet. Kalshi, the market‑leader in this niche, broke its own trading records multiple times throughout the competition. In fact, the daily trading volume during the World Cup was nearly ten times what it had been at various points earlier in 2026, and the platform even doubled the peak it set during the Knicks’ dramatic playoff run just a week before the tournament began.

What makes the story even juicier is the user data. According to app‑analytics firm Apptopia, Kalshi’s mobile app logged more daily active users than either DraftKings or FanDuel – the two heavyweight online sportsbooks – for the first time ever. It’s a clear sign that bettors are experimenting with a different kind of product, one that feels more like a financial contract than a traditional wager.

Industry analysts are taking note. Ian Moore of Bernstein warned that the surge “puts feet to the fire for traditional sportsbooks to start offering a similar service,” describing it as “a new opportunity for everyone.” Even H2 Gambling Capital’s Ed Birkin, while acknowledging the rapid growth, suggested that prediction markets may be serving a different, perhaps less lucrative, audience than classic sportsbooks.

Regulatory dynamics have helped shape this fast‑moving landscape. A few years back, prediction markets weren’t even allowed to take bets on sports events. Today, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has cleared the way for exchanges like Kalshi and Polymarket to roll out a suite of betting‑style products, while simultaneously fending off state‑level challenges in the courts.

Both startups have been unusually visible during the World Cup, splashing ads across digital boards and broadcasting their offers alongside the live matches. Kalshi even struck a late‑stage deal to appear on the electronic billboards that flank the field, a space traditionally dominated by gambling giants.

Beyond the typical win‑lose bets, these platforms have introduced “combos” – a prediction‑market twist on the classic parlay – allowing users to bundle multiple outcomes into a single, high‑risk, low‑odds contract. It’s a product that mirrors the high‑profit strategies sportsbooks have relied on for years.

Another advantage for prediction markets is the broader customer base they can reach. Federal rules let them accept participants from states where sports betting is still illegal, and they can take anyone over 18, whereas most sportsbooks enforce a 21‑plus age limit.

Traditional gambling firms haven’t been idle. DraftKings and FanDuel’s parent, Flutter Entertainment, both saw their shares jump ahead of the World Cup, only to tumble more than 25% year‑to‑date as the tournament progressed and prediction‑market volumes swelled. FanDuel’s new standalone prediction‑market app, however, has yet to gain meaningful traction, according to the same Apptopia data.

Polymarket, Kalshi’s chief rival, also reported a healthy uptick on both its international exchange and its freshly launched U.S. platform. Yet the data from Dune Analytics shows Kalshi’s trading volume during the World Cup was more than double that of Polymarket, cementing its position as the market leader.

In short, the World Cup has acted as a stress test for the emerging prediction‑market model. While it may not yet dethrone the entrenched sportsbooks, it has certainly carved out a sizable slice of the betting pie and forced the old‑guard to reconsider how they serve a new generation of gamblers.