Emmys: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

Best Comedy Series , which won for its two prior seasons at the two most recent ceremonies, landed a category best nine acting noms for what’s believed to be its last rodeo. But it’s got serious competition in the beloved network show , unique rookies and , and departing and I give a slight edge to inertia.

When voters continue to inexcusably ignore one of the best comedies on TV ( ) and two of my favorite dark comedies ( and ) are slotted as “dramas,” it leads to the most deserving winner being a magnificently tense and rarely overtly funny show for a season that aired more than 18 months ago. So … congrats, ? Best Lead Actor, Comedy Series Jeremy Allen White Set aside long shots Jason Segel ( ) and Martin Short ( ).

’s Bill Hader and ’s Jason Sudeikis both won twice before for their shows. But first time nominee Jeremy Allen White has become a star through , the second season of which dropped during voting, so … yes, Chef! . Bill Hader Martin Short may be giving the most traditionally comedic performance in this field with , but he can’t compete with all the angst and sentiment gifted to his competition.

It’s a slim edge to Bill Hader, so often haunted and coming apart at the seams in a concluding run of that took the hitman comedy series to new depths of nihilism and soul searching. . Best Lead Actress, Comedy Series Quinta Brunson ’s Rachel Brosnahan and ’s Christina Applegate are past winners up for their respective shows’ final seasons.

Everyone watched Netflix’s , so Jenna Ortega is a possibility. But for a second season of that was even better reviewed than its first, I expect voters to reward its Emmy winning creator and star. . Christina Applegate This is a “no wrong choices” field, and this preference may change depending on how recently I’ve watched Jenna Ortega’s viral school dance scene from .

But for now, I lean toward Christina Applegate, who gave real gravity and emotional depth to the zany convolutions in the third and final season of her Netflix murder cover up comedy . . Best Drama Series It’s hard to bet against a show with nine acting noms ( and ), a past winner ( ) and an overdue show nominated for the last time ( ).

But the final season of , which won for two of its three previous seasons and this season tied its own record with a whopping 14 acting noms, is in a league of its own. . This is a great category that should come down to the final seasons of all timers and . Advantage to , though, for a concluding run that featured a shocking death, a heartbreaking funeral, a wildly disheartening glimpse at electoral politics and a gripping finale that went from sweet to strychnine in 90 minutes.

. Best Lead Actor, Drama Series Pedro Pascal ’s unprecedented three nominees are Jeremy Strong, who won for season two; Brian Cox, who had limited screen time; and Kieran Culkin, competing as a lead for the first time. If they split, the beneficiary could be Bob Odenkirk for ’s last season or Pedro Pascal for ’ first.

Given that has never won an Emmy and Pascal has two other noms this year, go with Pascal. . Bob Odenkirk Other than the always great Brian Cox, who was more of a guest star, this is a ridiculously stacked category. Kieran Culkin wins the runoff, but Bob Odenkirk deserves to triumph overall for what became a three headed turn as Jimmy McGill, Gene Takavic and Saul Goodman on , a great drama that doesn’t deserve a total Emmy shutout.

. Best Lead Actress, Drama Series Sarah Snook It’s Sarah Snook’s third nom for playing Shiv Roy, but first in the lead category. This time, she’s up against a promising youngster ( ’ Bella Ramsey), a past winner ( ’s Elisabeth Moss) and three vets ( ’ Sharon Horgan, ’ Melanie Lynskey and ’s Keri Russell).

But it’s hard to imagine anyone but her winning. . Sarah Snook Elevated from supporting to lead actress for the first time after two previous noms, Sarah Snook made Shiv into the bruised but beating heart of the fourth and final season. Perpetually overlooked and forced to make untenable choices, Shiv followed a path that was often the show’s hardest to track, with Snook giving her a uniquely chilly yet vulnerable edge.

. Best Limited/Anthology Series The nominations are the wins for , and . That leaves two Netflix shows, and , tied for the category lead with 13 noms each. co creator Ryan Murphy has a strong Emmy track record, but was released more recently and much better reviewed. . Netflix’s pitch black comedy about the escalating and entirely avoidable consequences of a road rage incident captured the exposed and irritated raw nerve of 2023.

is so easily the class of this field, but mostly because Emmy viewers ignored more worthy contenders like in favor of yet another spinoff in . . Best Actor, Limited/Anthology Series Steven Yeun ’s Taron Egerton and ’s Daniel Radcliffe have a shot. But I think it’s between two guys whose shows are up for best limited/anthology series: ’s Evan Peters and ’s Steven Yeun.

Peters won a Globe and got a SAG Award nom in 2023. For his much better reviewed show, Yeun just won a Globe, with a SAG nom sure to follow. . Steven Yeun There’s nothing wrong with Taron Egerton as TV’s most dapper prisoner or Daniel Radcliffe having a blast as popular music’s finest polka and parody aficionado, but this isn’t their year.

Watch Danny’s slow avalanche of a meltdown in the Living Glory Church in the “I Am Inhabited by a Cry” episode of and then just give this award to Steven Yeun. No need to get complicated. . Best Lead Actress, Limited/Anthology Series Ali Wong Just once in the past decade has this award’s winner not hailed from a show that was up for best limited/anthology series, which suggests this year’s race is between ’s Lizzy Caplan, ’s Riley Keough and ’s Ali Wong.

Wong’s show was the most recently released, has the most noms, and streams on Netflix, which are all advantages. . Dominique Fishback This should have been a showdown between ’s Dominique Fishback and ’ Rachel Weisz. At least Fishback made the cut for her mercurial performance in the darkly comedic horror story about modern fandom and emotional disconnection in the digital age.

Her character evolves with every episode, and the exceptional actress charts a strange, dangerous course. . . THR Newsletters Sign up for THR news straight to your inbox every day More from The Hollywood Reporter.