El Niño 2026 Threatens India’s Monsoon: Rainfall Expected to Stay Below Normal

When the first clouds of the southwest monsoon begin to gather over the Indian subcontinent, many of us look forward to a season of relief after the scorching summer. This year, however, that relief might come with a pinch of disappointment. Meteorologists say the 2026 El Niño is already making its presence felt, and the forecast points toward a monsoon that will be noticeably weaker than usual.

According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), average rainfall for the core monsoon months—June, July and August—is projected to be about 10‑15% below the long‑term norm for most of the country. In plain language: if a city typically gets 100 mm of rain in a week, it might see only 85‑90 mm this time around. That shortfall may sound modest on paper, but when you multiply it across the vast plains of the Ganga‑Brahmaputra basin, the impact can be stark.

Major metros such as Mumbai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Chennai are all on the watch list. Mumbai, for instance, is expected to receive roughly 70 mm less than its average during the monsoon window, a drop that could strain the city’s already tight water reservoirs. Bengaluru’s annual rain gauge could register a deficit of nearly 100 mm, raising concerns for its burgeoning population and the many lakes that serve as its lifelines.

Farmers in the core agricultural belts are also bracing for a tougher season. Crops that depend heavily on monsoon rains—paddy, soybean and sugarcane—might see yields dip unless supplemental irrigation can be arranged. The Indian government has already hinted at emergency water releases from reservoirs in the north and the potential activation of drought‑relief schemes in the most vulnerable districts.

It’s not all gloom, though. Some western and central regions, like parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat, could actually see a slight uptick in rainfall, thanks to shifting wind patterns associated with El Niño. Still, the overall national picture remains one of caution.

Why does El Niño have such a pronounced effect? In simple terms, the phenomenon alters sea‑surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which then ripples through the global atmospheric circulation. For India, the result is often a weaker monsoon jet stream, leading to reduced moisture transport from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

Authorities urge citizens to conserve water, adopt rain‑water harvesting where possible, and stay informed through regular IMD updates. While weather is ultimately beyond our control, preparation can soften the blow of a drier monsoon.