EDITORIAL: Carbon taxes going up and so are emissions

Like death and taxes, two things Canadians can rely on heading into 2024 are that the Trudeau government’s carbon tax will keep going up while greenhouse gas emissions will keep rising. On April 1, the federal carbon tax that applies in eight of Canada’s 10 provinces (Quebec and B.C. have their own plans approved by Ottawa) will increase by 23% to $80 per tonne of industrial greenhouse gas emissions, up from its current level of $65 per tonne, on its way to $170 per tonne in 2030.

The April 1 hike will increase the cost of gasoline by 17.61¢ per litre, up from its current level of 14.31¢ and the cost of natural gas per cubic metre to 15.25¢ up from its current level of 12.39¢ By the time the carbon tax is fully implemented on April 1, 2030, the cost of gasoline will be 37.43¢ per litre and 32.40¢ per cubic metre of natural gas.

While those are the most direct costs to consumers — raising the cost of transportation and home heating fuel for most Canadians — the carbon tax also applies to 20 other forms of fossil fuel energy. Meanwhile, according to a report by the Global Carbon Project released last month, global emissions from the burning of fossil fuels rose to a record high in 2023 of 36.8 billion tonnes, an increase of 1.1% from 36.4 billion tonnes in 2022.

The latest figures from the federal government put Canada’s energy related greenhouse gas emissions at 670 million tonnes in 2021, up 11 million tonnes or by 1.8% compared to 659 million tonnes in 2020. Meanwhile, the Canadian Climate Institute estimated in September that Canada’s emissions in 2022, at about 684 million tonnes, were 14 million tonnes, or 2.1% higher, than in 2021.

We won’t know Canada’s official emission level for 2023 until April 2025, because the government reports it two years after the fact. The government argues that climate action incentive payments (rebates) on the carbon tax leave 80% of households paying it better off financially. Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux says when you factor in the negative impact of the carbon tax on the Canadian economy, 60% of households paying it will actually end up worse off..