Democrat Voters Flipping to GOP in Key Swing State Ahead of 2024 Election

Democrats may be in for a disappointment in Pennsylvania come Election Day next year. As of Dec. 18, 35,589 Pennsylvania voters have flipped their party affiliation from Democratic to Republican in 2023. That’s more than twice the 15,622 Republicans who switched to the Democratic Party. The numbers mark a continuation of a trend from last year, in which 60,553 Democrats became Republicans and just 23,203 Republicans became Democrats.

Democrats are also opting in greater numbers to be unaffiliated with either major political party, with 18,887 making that choice this year, compared to 12,937 Republicans. In total, 54,476 Democrats left the party in 2023, contributing to an overall loss of 149,449 registered voters since November 2022.

And while the party still holds a nearly 438,000 registrant advantage in the Keystone State, that edge has decreased by roughly 248,000 voters since November 2020. “PA is in play,” he added. In 2020, then candidate Joe Biden’s victory in Pennsylvania netted him the state’s coveted cache of 20 electoral votes.

Next year, the state will only be worth 19 votes due to population shifts recorded in the 2020 census, though it will still hold the fifth highest electoral pot in the nation. Yet even as Republicans have swayed many Democrats over to their side of the aisle, their own voter registration numbers have yet to reflect a major upswing.

In fact, the Pennsylvania GOP has seen a net loss of about 84,000 voters since the 2020 election. This year alone, a total of 28,559 Republicans chose to leave the party. Still, with several months of campaigning to go before the election, there’s time left for both parties to change minds. But with two familiar—and polarizing—faces running away with their nomination contests, the question remains whether there are enough swayable voters left for those efforts to make a difference.

As the incumbent, President Biden and his policies will be front of mind for many voters at the ballot box. And if recent polling is any indicator, that could be detrimental to his hopes of reelection. The survey, conducted among 800 registered voters, also found that if the election were held today, 41 percent of respondents would vote for former President Donald Trump—the Republican front runner—while just 31 percent would support President Biden.

Tied for third place at 15 percent each were Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, both Republicans. However, when asked whether they would support a Republican or Democrat candidate if the election were held today, voters favored Republicans by just 1 point (47–46 percent).

Both President Biden and President Trump continue to hold dominant leads over their primary opponents. The latter will face the first true test of that lead with the GOP’s Iowa caucus on Jan. 15. President Biden, meanwhile, will have to wait until South Carolina’s primary on Feb. 3, given the Democratic National Committee’s revamped presidential primary calendar..