Central Asia’s Delicate Dance Around Russian Sanctions

Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are attempting to maintain a precarious balance amid international sanctions against Russia, trying to remain in the good books of both Western countries and Russia. Kazakhstan has demonstrated more successful management of this situation than Kyrgyzstan, as both nations aim to stay neutral on the Ukraine conflict. Kazakh President Kassym Jomart Tokayev, while visiting Germany, reiterated that Kazakhstan has not been in violation of any sanctions against Russia and that the country values its relationship with Russia, with which it shares the world’s longest border. President of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Japarov, echoing Tokayev, denied accusations from the US on his nation’s contravening of sanctions. However, despite official denials, existing evidence argues against their claims. The substantial growth in trade volume in 2022 between these nations and Russia indicate a potential breach of the sanctions regime. The Western nations have so far only penalised Kyrgyzstan for aiding Russia in its war efforts, with five of its companies being sanctioned. Urban development efforts made by Kazakhstan include an automated online tracking system that tracks imported goods and their movements within Kazakhstan to control the sanctions violations, which, however, has attracted contention over its efficacy. While Kazakhstan has been better in handling Western grievances, Kyrgyzstan has been seen as slower in response with investigations into sanctioned companies yet to deliver results. Furthermore, Kyrgyzstan made changes in the format for data reporting on foreign trade that has potentially obscured the oversight efforts. Kazakhstan, at the same time, has shown a willingness to stand against Russian pressure thus gaining diplomatic favour with the West. This includes not recognising the independence of breakaway regions in Ukraine and opting to address the Russian delegation led by Vladimir Putin in Kazakh. It must be noted that Kazakhstan's open channels of communication with western think tanks, media and other foundations, coupled with its oil and gas ventures attracting investments from the EU, UK, and US, has helped to ameliorate Western concerns.