Bitcoin Acts Like an Amplified Version of Gold—But the Four‑Year Cycle Could Bring New Trouble

After months of treading water between $60,000 and $70,000, Bitcoin finally snapped out of its sideways range late last month. By Thursday it had nudged up to $82,262, a four‑month peak that reminded many of the market’s more euphoric days back in October when the digital asset briefly topped $126,000.

Even though the rally faded a touch – the coin settled around $79,800 on Friday – the price is still perched near the highest point it’s reached since May. For a few investors, that’s enough to rekindle the feeling that Bitcoin is back to being a “safe haven,” a sort of digital gold that shines when markets get jittery.

André Dragosch, Bitwise’s Europe research director, put it plainly in a client note: “When macro forces get serious, people stop drawing sharp lines between Bitcoin and gold. In those moments, Bitcoin behaves like an amplified version of gold.” His observation follows a recent policy hint from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who talked about expanding Treasury buybacks of long‑dated bonds as yields climb. The prospect of a more aggressive bond‑buyback strategy has sparked worries about “financial repression,” especially as the 30‑year Treasury yield hit a two‑decade high amid lingering inflation concerns tied to the Iran conflict.

That backdrop seems to be nudging Bitcoin’s 90‑day correlation with gold toward a six‑year high, according to Dragosch. Earlier this year the cryptocurrency moved more in step with risk‑on assets like tech stocks, but the pendulum appears to be swinging the other way.

Still, the similarity to gold isn’t all sunshine. The last time Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar moved that closely was during the 2020 pandemic‑driven stimulus wave. Back then, central banks were flooding the system with liquidity, a scenario that isn’t exactly repeating now.

Adding a dash of caution, several traders are dusting off the four‑year cycle theory. The idea, popularized by analysts like Alex Thorn of Galaxy, suggests that Bitcoin’s bear‑market lows and bull‑market highs tend to repeat roughly every four years, linked to the halving events that halve miners’ rewards. Thorn’s June report hinted at a possible bottom somewhere between $40,000 and $46,000, likely unfolding sometime in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Fidelity’s Chris Kuiper, however, warned against taking the cycle as a precise crystal ball. “The timing isn’t exact, and a four‑year rhythm doesn’t guarantee a near‑term slide,” he wrote in the firm’s Q4 crypto outlook. Kuiper’s takeaway? Keep a long‑term lens and resist the urge to panic‑sell when short‑term swings get rough.

In short, Bitcoin’s latest sprint mirrors gold’s safe‑haven allure, but the specter of its own historical cycle looms, reminding investors that the crypto market still loves a good plot twist.