Best of the West: Gonzaga takes flawed resume into WCC play, where massive downside risk looms
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- January 04, 2024
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In baseball, hitters who strike out four times in a single game are said to have earned the golden sombrero. For Gonzaga basketball, four whiffs in a single season could carry a different term: NIT. The Zags were winless in four games against Quadrant I opponents during the non conference portion of their 2023 24 schedule, losing to Purdue, Connecticut, San Diego State and Washington.
Typically a lock for the NCAA Tournament at this point in the season, they are instead navigating treacherous waters. Their position in the all important NET ranking (No. 57) is outside the normal range for at large bids and one spot below … wait for it … Washington State. What’s more, the West Coast Conference schedule that begins this week brings heavy downside risk for the Zags: Victories will do little to strengthen their resume while any loss could carry significant damage.
One reason for Gonzaga’s fragile existence: Early season wins over UCLA and USC are providing no rocket fuel — both Los Angeles schools are below .500. The Zags had four chances to collect a Quadrant I victory and whiffed each time: They lost on neutral courts to Purdue and Connecticut, on the road to Washington and at home to San Diego State last week.
To be clear, their path to March Madness isn’t blocked. If they win the WCC tournament, an automatic bid awaits. But unlike previous years, the Zags cannot rest easy knowing they have secured an at large berth if something goes wrong in Las Vegas. 1. Arizona (10 3/1 1 Pac 12) 1 won at Cal 100 81, lost at Stanford 100 82 No.
4 vs. Colorado (Thursday) The Wildcats only dropped one spot in the NET after their lopsided defeat at Stanford. Why? Ugly as it looked, the result counted as a Quadrant 2 loss, which has limited impact. The key for Arizona: Avoiding any Quadrant III or IV defeats in conference play. 2. Brigham Young (12 1) 3 beat Wyoming 94 68 No.
2 vs. Cincinnati (Saturday) Last season, the Cougars were 103rd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, per the Pomeroy advanced metrics. This season, they’re sixth. But will that improvement hold against all the stout defenses in the Big 12? 3. Colorado State (13 1/1 0 MW) 4 beat Adams State 106 61 and New Mexico 76 68 No.
17 at Utah State (Saturday) CSU point guard Isaiah Stevens, who contributed 18 points and eight assists in the win over the Lobos, is tracking for a spot on the Hotline’s midseason all Best of the West team. He has been superb on a weekly basis. 4. San Diego State (11 2) 9 beat Gonzaga 84 74 No. 23 vs.
Fresno State (Wednesday) Notably, two of the Aztecs’ wins have come against teams outside Division I (Point Loma Nazarene and Saint Katherine) and thus aren’t included on their resume. In the eyes of the NCAA selection committee, SDSU is 9 2. 5. Colorado (11 2/2 0 Pac 12) 5 beat Washington 73 69 and WSU 74 67 No.
31 at Arizona (Thursday) With forward Tristan da Silva seemingly unavailable this week (ankle), the Buffaloes need a massive performance from guard KJ Simpson to have a hint of a hope of a prayer of winning in Tucson. 6. Gonzaga (9 4) 2 lost to San Diego State 84 74 No. 57 vs. Pepperdine (Thursday) The Hotline isn’t prepared to place the full weight of Gonzaga’s decline on the loss of ace recruiter Tommy Lloyd, who left for Arizona in the spring of 2021.
But the impact of Lloyd’s departure cannot be ignored. The roster isn’t what it used to be. 7. Utah (11 2/2 0 Pac 12) 7 beat Washington State 80 58 and Washington 95 90 No. 18 at Arizona State (Thursday) The Utes’ lofty NET ranking makes sense given the absence of bad losses and the presence of five Quadrant I and II victories.
Related Articles 8. Nevada (13 1) 6 beat Fresno Pacific 92 59 No. 34 vs. Fresno State (Saturday) Nevada’s pursuit of an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament depends partly on how well three of its conquests, Washington, TCU and Georgia Tech, perform in their respective conferences. 9. New Mexico(12 2/0 1 MW) 8 beat Eastern New Mexico 87 54, lost at Colorado State 76 68 No.
37 vs. Wyoming (Saturday) Losing on the road to CSU is immaterial. Losing at home to Wyoming would be very, very material: Quadrant IV defeats are resume killers. 10. Utah State (13 1/1 0 MW) 10 beat Air Force 88 60 No. 26 vs. Colorado State (Saturday) We should have a better feel for the Aggies by the middle of the month, following their home date with CSU and upcoming trips to Las Vegas and Albuquerque.
If they survive unscathed, a top four spot in the BOTW rankings awaits. 11. Oregon (10 3/2 0) Not ranked beat USC 82 74 and UCLA 64 59 No. 72 at Washington (Thursday) There is one major hole in Oregon’s resume: Eight of the 10 victories are of the Quadrant III and IV variety. The Ducks have numerous opportunities to correct that imbalance, starting Thursday in Seattle.
12. Grand Canyon (12 1/2 0 WAC) 11 beat Louisiana Tech 73 70 No. 41 at Southern Utah (Thursday) If the Antelopes hold their position in the NET rankings through conference play, they would have a chance to reach the NCAA through the at large pool. Given the competition in the WAC, that outcome seems unlikely: A single loss would be damaging..