BAFTA Longlist Predictions 2024: ‘Napoleon’ and ‘Society of the Snow’ Could Show Strength and Will Voters Love ‘Barbie?’

BAFTA, the British Academy of Film and Television Arts, has long served as a crucial forecast tool for the Academy Awards, given the significant overlap of their voting members. It has consistently influenced the Oscars, with many of its winners often shaping the award season's narrative. For example, the German film “All Quiet on the Western Front”, overlooked by the major guilds last year, made a significant impact on BAFTA before securing nine Oscar nominations and winning four. The upcoming longlists, due to be revealed on Friday, January 5, will offer the first key indications about this year's potential winners across several categories, each with its own nomination rules. Of particular interest will be how films considered to have a more “American bent” will resonate with BAFTA's voting members. We're keen to see the responses to Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” and Alexander Payne’s festive offering, “The Holdovers”. Check out the longlist predictions below, and stay tuned for up-to-date Oscars predictions across all categories on Variety’s Awards Circuit. You can also delve into our predictions for the OSCARS, EMMYS, GRAMMYS, and TONYS. Update: Jan. 4, 2024. Potential contenders include: “All of Us Strangers”; “American Fiction”; “May December”; “Napoleon”; “Saltburn”. (For voting rounds, in round one, members pick their top 10 films; these comprise the longlist. In round two, members vote for their top five; these become the BAFTA nominees) Alternative male director: Ryûsuke Hamaguchi for “Evil Does Not Exist”. Alternative female director: Kaouther Ben Hania for “Four Daughters”. (In round one, the best two directors regardless of gender are automatically nominated. The top five female and male directors are longlisted. The longlisting jury will determine the remaining directors, ensuring an equal gender split. In round two, four directors join those auto-nominated in round one to make up the final nominations list) Alternative: “Forever Young”. (In round one, members vote for up to 15 films, the top 15 become longlisted, with the top five auto-nominated. In round two, a jury reviews the films that placed 6-20, and votes for the remaining five nominees, resulting in 10 films being the BAFTA nominees.) Alternate male lead: Michael Caine for “The Great Escaper”. Alternate female lead: Carey Mulligan for “Maestro”. Alternate male supporting: Riz Ahmed for “Fingernails”. Alternate female supporting: Vanessa Kirby for “Napoleon”. (In all acting categories, the acting chapter will vote for their top 10. The top three performances will be automatically nominated, and the top seven performances will be longlisted. The longlisting jury selects the final three from positions 8-15 to constitute a longlist of 10. The top three are auto-nominated, and three additional are selected by the longlisting jury.) Potential nominations include: “Saltburn”; “Rojek”; “Nimona”; “Four Daughters”; “The Taste of Things”; “Past Lives”; “Chevalier”; “Spider Man: Across the Spider Verse”; “BlackBerry”; “Flora and Son”; “The Little Mermaid”; "Saltburn".