Aswath Damodaran Says SpaceX Is Not Overpriced – A Valuation Perspective

When SpaceX announced its most recent fundraising round, the headline numbers—billion‑plus valuations, astronomical price‑per‑share figures—made many investors raise an eyebrow. "Is it too rich?" the chatter in finance circles went, almost as quickly as the tweets.

Enter Aswath Damodaran, the so‑called dean of valuation at NYU Stern. In a recent video (yes, the professor finally decided to step out of his spreadsheets and into a Zoom call), he tackled the hype head‑on. His conclusion? SpaceX may look pricey, but it’s not wildly overvalued when you dig into the fundamentals.

First, Damodaran reminded us that valuation isn’t about comparing a private company to a list price on a retail shelf. It’s about estimating future cash flows and then discounting them back to today. SpaceX, he noted, has a pipeline of contracts—satellite launches, Starlink subscriptions, even a budding space‑tourism business. Those aren’t just pipe dreams; they’re signed agreements with governments and corporations that will generate cash for years to come.

Second, the professor highlighted the venture‑capital lens. Early‑stage tech firms often carry high “price‑to‑sales” multiples because investors are paying for growth potential, not current earnings. In SpaceX’s case, the multiple may look obscene compared to a mature utility, but when you benchmark it against other aerospace start‑ups, the gap shrinks dramatically.

He did sprinkle in a cautionary note, though. The valuation hinges on assumptions—launch frequency stays high, Starlink continues expanding, and regulatory hurdles stay clear. If any of those variables wobble, the price could swing.

Still, Damodaran’s main takeaway was that the market isn’t wildly mispricing SpaceX; rather, it’s reflecting a rational, albeit optimistic, view of a company that is fundamentally changing how we access space. So, while the headline numbers can be jaw‑dropping, they’re not necessarily a sign of a bubble—just the kind of premium you’d expect when betting on the future of an industry.

Bottom line? If you’re a “valuation nerd” like Damodaran, you’ll look past the hype, run the numbers, and probably end up agreeing that SpaceX’s price tag, while lofty, isn’t automatically a red flag.