Apophis: The Asteroid Once Feared as Earth's Doom, Now Declared Harmless for a Century

For nearly two decades, the name 'Apophis' conjured images of potential cosmic catastrophe. Named after the ancient Egyptian god of chaos and evil, this colossal asteroid was once considered one of the most significant celestial threats to Earth. But now, after years of intense scientific scrutiny and groundbreaking observations, the terrifying prospect of an impact has been definitively swept away.

NASA has delivered the reassuring news: the 340-meter-wide asteroid, larger than three football pitches, poses no risk of impacting our planet for at least the next century.

This monumental announcement follows a recent close flyby in March 2021, which allowed astronomers to conduct incredibly precise radar observations, charting Apophis’s orbit with unprecedented accuracy.

The journey from fear to certainty has been long. Discovered in 2004, Apophis immediately raised alarms within the scientific community.

Initial calculations suggested a 2.7% chance of it striking Earth in 2029 – a probability that, while seemingly small, was alarmingly high for such a destructive event. Had it hit, the impact would have unleashed energy equivalent to hundreds of megatons of TNT, capable of devastating an entire region.

Subsequent observations refined the orbit, ruling out a 2029 impact but shifting the concern to future dates, particularly 2036.

The possibility of Apophis passing through a "gravitational keyhole" during its 2029 close approach – a tiny region of space where Earth's gravity could alter its trajectory just enough to ensure a later collision – kept planetary defense scientists on high alert.

However, the March 2021 encounter provided the breakthrough.

As Apophis safely passed within 17 million kilometres of Earth, NASA's Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex in California, along with the Green Bank Observatory in West Virginia, precisely mapped its position and speed. "A 2068 impact is no longer in the realm of possibility, and our calculations don’t show any impact risk for at least the next 100 years," confirmed Davide Farnocchia of NASA’s Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS).

"The Apophis impact risk has effectively been removed."

While the threat of impact is gone, Apophis still promises a spectacular celestial show. On Friday, April 13, 2029, the asteroid will make an extraordinarily close pass, coming within 32,000 kilometres of Earth's surface. To put that into perspective, it will be closer than some geostationary communication satellites.

This close approach will be visible to the naked eye from parts of the Eastern Hemisphere, a rare and awe-inspiring event that will also be meticulously studied by scientists as it offers a unique opportunity to observe such a large asteroid up close.

This event will also significantly alter Apophis's orbit due to Earth's gravitational pull, changing its classification from an 'Aten' to an 'Apollo' asteroid.

The resolution of the Apophis conundrum underscores the critical importance of planetary defense efforts. With over 25,000 known near-Earth objects, continuous monitoring, precise trajectory predictions, and international collaboration are vital to ensuring our planet's long-term safety from cosmic impacts.

The story of Apophis is a testament to scientific perseverance and humanity's growing ability to understand and navigate the vast, dynamic cosmos.