Alaska’s LNG Negotiations Need a Breather

Alaska certainly needs a gas line – that part is beyond dispute. What the state can’t afford, however, is yet another special session where everyone arrives with the same demands, the same rhetoric, and the same inevitable stalemate.

Governor Mike Dunleavy has summoned the Legislature for a third consecutive special session, starting Monday, to negotiate a massive property‑tax break for the proposed Alaska LNG project. Even the leaders of both parties are already calling the odds “low,” “unlikely” and “a long shot.” Those aren’t exactly confidence‑boosting phrases for a session that costs taxpayers time and money.

Instead of pushing forward now, we should consider pressing the pause button. Let the new governor take office in December, use the intervening months to do the hard, behind‑the‑scenes work – crunch the numbers, line up financing, and address the political tinder – and then reconvene in January with a clearer, more realistic game plan.

Calling for a pause isn’t surrender. It’s a pragmatic admission that the current process has ground to a halt. The Alaska LNG project still holds enormous promise: moving gas from the North Slope to global markets could safeguard our energy future, create thousands of jobs, and deliver a revenue stream the state hasn’t seen since the Trans‑Alaska Pipeline era.

But a venture that could easily top $55 billion needs a predictable, competitive tax structure. Yes, the state will likely have to offer Glenfarne, the project’s lead developer, meaningful property‑tax relief. “Meaningful” doesn’t mean “whatever number you like” or a permanent blank check. Lawmakers need to see the actual spreadsheets that justify any concession.

Glenfarne still hasn’t answered three basic questions: Who will buy the gas? Who will finance the build? And who will foot the bill if costs overrun? Municipalities deserve to know how much property‑tax revenue they’d be giving up, what additional road or public‑service costs they’d shoulder, and whether they’re protected if construction stalls. The state, too, must spell out consequences if Glenfarne secures a hefty break but then misses deadlines or walks away.

In short, the company owes Alaskans more than vague promises. It must lay out its financial assumptions, present credible financing and purchase commitments, accept firm construction timelines, and agree to clawbacks or other safeguards if the project falls short. After all, this is Alaskans’ gas – we deserve the numbers.

And it’s not just Glenfarne that needs to step up. Lawmakers have tangled the negotiations by attaching a corporate‑income‑tax overhaul to the gas‑line talks. The push to make Hilcorp‑type pass‑through entities pay their fair share is long overdue, but using that tax reform as leverage has stalled the LNG discussions. Tax reform deserves its own debate and its own vote, not a bargaining chip that derails a critical infrastructure project.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle is the governor himself. Mike Dunleavy’s political capital has eroded to the point where he no longer commands the credibility needed to carry the LNG project across the finish line. He introduced his property‑tax proposal in March, well into the regular session, and then expected lawmakers to rally around it without the data they demanded.

What Alaska needs now is a reset: a brief intermission, a fresh set of eyes, and a commitment to transparency. Give the incoming administration time to sort the numbers, let the Legislature approach the issue without pre‑set expectations, and perhaps, just perhaps, the third time around could finally be the charm – if it ever gets a chance to be.