2024 Could be a Better Year for Canadian Oil Producers

Numbers Report – January 05, 2024 In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we will take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the energy and metals sectors. Each week we’ll dig into some data and provide a bit of explanation on what drives the numbers. Let’s take a look.

1. 2024 Should Have Been Canada’s Year, Might Still Be The long anticipated launch of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline has been a rallying call for Canadian upstream producers to ramp up operations, benefitting from a new export conduit. Delays in TMX’s commissioning have restrained Canada’s export options, with the WTI WCS spread widening from a $12 per barrel discount in July to $25 per barrel over the winter months, as exporters need to rely on costly crude by rail options.

Despite weak differentials and protracted wildfires earlier in 2023, crude production from Alberta’s oil sands are still set to increase by 3% year on year, adding 90,000 b/d to a new record level of 3.345 million b/d. With Canada’s oil industry expecting the start of pipeline fills in the 590,000 b/d TMX lines between March and May, the price of Canada’s benchmark WCS is expected to strengthen to a $13 15 per barrel discount to WTI again.

2. China Becomes World’s Largest LNG Buyer, Overtaking Japan Benefitting from its first full year of post pandemic normality,….